Illustration by Ethan Cornell
The earth is finite, nature is finite, and the carbon-holding capacity of nature is finite.
The remaining carbon budget to keep atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases below critical temperature thresholds is very limited. Yet these limitations are rarely, if ever, acknowledged in narratives about “net zero.”
The use of ‘Net Zero’ commitments feeds a false belief that we can quickly scale up enough carbon dioxide removal [CDR] in forests, crop soils—but also through geoengineering—to allow for continued fossil emissions out to 2050 and beyond. But these proposed uses of nature for sequestration already add up to several Earth’s worth of forests and other carbon-rich ecosystems.
Explore these pages to understand how ‘net zero’ is being used to shape how we look at climate ambition. How this shift was enabled. What are the impacts. Who uses ‘net zero’ commitments, and why.
And the way forward…Toward Real Zero.
Enablers
Carbon can be returned to landscapes,
but not at the scales sought
by the fossil fuel giants.
“Net zero” has created an enormous demand for nature-as-solution. Governments and companies are devising new schemes to measure and justify the amount of carbon that can be traded.
In an attempt to continue emissions-as-usual, some governments and corporations are constructing an enabling environment for climate delay and denial. Other companies, and some conservation organizations, are commodifying carbon in nature for sale.
Carbon-market plans in this decade are designed to allow continued emissions in the Global North while relying on carbon sequestration in the Global South—the latest chapter in neocolonialism.
Users
Are we going to allow
the limited removal capacity of nature
to be sold to the highest bidder?
Fossil fuel companies continue to build pipelines to deliver oil and gas while making claims about ‘carbon neutrality’. Beef and dairy companies make similar claims—while expanding their herds.
Impacts
Time has run out.
The age of fossil fuels is ending.
The era of offsetting is over.
We cannot offset our way to zero. Terrestrial ecosystems are finite—and they are already stressed by climate change.
The expansion of offset markets dangerously undermines pathways to prevent further warming. Future emissions are already committed in existing power plants and transport infrastructure.
How land-based offsets claimed by corporations will fit into land-use plans made by countries is unclear. Without limits on the use of offsets, do we lock ourselves into >2°C warming pathways?
Toward Real Zero
To stay below 1.5 °C requires the world to be on a pathway to real zero—complete decarbonization of power, transport, and building sectors—in the next two decades. Getting to real zero also requires stopping deforestation, minimizing emissions from agriculture, and restoring forest and other ecosystems.